30th Birthday Tournament Predictor

Charlie Reams

Charlie Reams Looking forward to people posting links to their own ratings estimates!

Jon O'Neill

Jon O'Neill I like dem odds: http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=0&r2032=0&r15742=0&r2154=0&r2399=0&r365=0&r3=0&r13543=0&r1=3000&r17637=0&r12694=0&r2359=0&r10954=0&r16412=0&r-3=0&r2465=0&r14198=0&r346=0&r2382=0&r2=0&r-1=0&r3250=0&r-9=0&r-2=0&r2184=0&r1890=0&r2615=0&r-12=0&r-4=0&r-11=0&r-7=0&r3063=0&r-13=0&r350=0&r17846=0&r2043=0&r-6=0&r-8=0&r100012=0&r18156=0&r-10=0

Jack Worsley

Jack Worsley 3rd favourite!? Surely a joke.

Tracey Mills

Tracey Mills Edward and Jack H should be the favourites at least

Michael Wallace

Michael Wallace No joke, Jack :) You've got the 5th highest rating in the field, and then a relatively kind draw bumps you up a couple of places.

Jon O'Neill

Jon O'Neill Tracey they're clearly your favourites!

Matt Morrison

Matt Morrison I have no idea how this is encouraged but somehow me suggesting quids in on the sweepstake puts pressure on the competitors! I obviously love this though, great shout.

Jon O'Neill

Jon O'Neill His butt hurts.

Jack Hurst

Jack Hurst This is great, can you incorporate an override option to remove players who have been knocked out?

Jon O'Neill

Jon O'Neill I checked with Wallace. If you set their rating to 0 it has that effect.

Jack Hurst

Jack Hurst Cool. It's suprising how much it changes it.

Jack Hurst

Jack Hurst I think the ratings for some of the people who don't play on apterous are a bit optimistic.

Jon O'Neill

Jon O'Neill Have you not seen Ernest Mas?

Gevin Chapwell

Gevin Chapwell Edward McCullagh's probability jumps out at me as being surprisingly low, especially since his draw looks very good. Unless we're saying that - not naming names - that other guy close to him in the draw that doesn't appear to play on Apterous any more plays with the same initials as Ed.

Matt Hamer

Matt Hamer If I were a betting man, I'd have a cheeky quid or two on 100-1 on Chris Wills. Although I have no idea whether he's been bothered to do any practice.

Jon O'Neill

Jon O'Neill I think Tournoff is good value at 10,000-1... we've seen what he's capable of under pressure.

Gevin Chapwell

Gevin Chapwell I also think that Darryl Francis has a better chance than some of those above him that aren't on Apterous. And I'm not sure what Steven Briers has done to warrant that rating and such a high probability of winning, especially compared to McCullagh who is in a similar position in the draw.

Adam Gillard

Adam Gillard Jono, you don't have to be so drastic to get to the top of the pile: http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r12694=0&r2359=1864&r17637=1873&r1=1847&r14198=1835&r2465=1805&r-3=1774&r2=1771&r346=1771&r-13=1559&r2382=1611&r-1=1596&r3250=1667&r-9=1608&r-4=1600&r2615=1660&r-12=1579&r-11=1557&r1890=1578&r-2=1504&r2184=1523&r350=1531&r-7=1489&r17846=1408&r3063=1421&r2043=1435&r-6=1456&r-8=1390&r100012=1359&r18156=1214&r-10=1192&r2032=0&r10954=0&r3=0&r15742=0&r2399=0&r13543=0&r2154=0&r398=0&r365=0&r16412=0

Tracey Mills

Tracey Mills Edward is Jon but you will have to gues who my next favourite apterite is.... !

Charlie Reams

Charlie Reams Jono becomes favourite if his rating reaches 2044, in fact http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2099&r1=2044&r2032=2100&r2154=1998&r2399=2015&r15742=1992&r365=1960&r3=1988&r13543=1964&r17637=1873&r2359=1864&r12694=1851&r10954=1920&r16412=1827&r-3=1774&r2465=1805&r346=1771&r14198=1835&r2382=1611&r-1=1596&r2=1771&r3250=1667&r-2=1504&r2184=1523&r-9=1608&r-4=1600&r2615=1660&r1890=1578&r-12=1579&r-11=1557&r3063=1421&r350=1531&r-7=1489&r-13=1559&r17846=1408&r2043=1435&r-6=1456&r-8=1390&r100012=1359&r18156=1214&r-10=1192

Adam Gillard

Adam Gillard 2159 for me :(

Jon O'Neill

Jon O'Neill I'd better get practising then.

Nik Mak

Nik Mak ffs Tom...

David Barnard

David Barnard To anyone that doesn't know, George Smith is actually Nick Wainwright

David O'Donnell

David O'Donnell Is it a measure of my low self-esteem that I'm euphoric about this?

Matt Morrison

Matt Morrison Lame. That goes to both Davids.

Adam Gillard

Adam Gillard So this is updated along with Pro Ranks? Suddenly Innis is favourite and I've moved up to 10th.

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Where's Nick Wainwright on this?!

David Barnard

David Barnard Zarte, you mean George smith?

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Do I?!?!

Tom Rowell

Tom Rowell Would it be possible to adjust as and when people are knocked out or is that too complicated?

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Yes, you change their rating to 0

Darryl Francis

Darryl Francis Once you know who's been knocked out - either from watching the broadcast programs or participant knowledge from the actual recording sessions, it'sinteresting to see the positions changing.

Darryl Francis

Darryl Francis Still no answer as to why Nick Wainwright isn't on the list. Does that mean that there's someone on this list who isn't in the 30th anniversary thing? (I know Nick was knocked out on the prog broadcast on January 8.)

Nick Deller

Nick Deller George Smith knows.

Darryl Francis

Darryl Francis Ooh, is this a guessing game? Are NW and GS one and the same player?

Jack Hurst

Jack Hurst Haha I'm first. I guarantee I wont ever be first again as of tomorrow.

Jon O'Neill

Jon O'Neill Posting a link would be handy!

Matt Morrison

Matt Morrison I certainly can't be fucked to do a link every day, but I also can't be fucked to fill in the zeros every day from scratch, so if someone else can take the reins... here is today's link: http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r2032=2129&r398=2085&r2399=2043&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r3=2007&r365=1960&r13543=0&r17637=1927&r10954=1977&r1=1833&r12694=1838&r16412=1864&r2359=1864&r14198=1864&r346=1805&r-3=1774&r2465=1793&r2382=1611&r2=1771&r-1=1596&r3250=1684&r-9=1608&r1890=1596&r-2=1504&r2184=1492&r-12=1579&r2615=1660&r-4=1600&r-11=1557&r-7=1489&r3063=1421&r17846=1408&r-13=1559&r-8=1390&r350=0&r2043=1380&r-6=0&r100012=1359&r18156=1199&r-10=1192 [SPOILERS obv]

Jon O'Neill

Jon O'Neill Awesome, good idea. Someone will update it each day. For those that don't know, when you re-run you get a new URL. Paste the URL in here for an updated link.

Matt Morrison

Matt Morrison Rather than say things like "Haha I'm first" in case someone wants to run a prediction before they have seen the day's result. ;-)

Michael Wallace

Michael Wallace Why isn't Nick Wainwright in this list? Amateurish.

Matt Morrison

Matt Morrison Well fuck every single one of you for not doing yesterday's link, so here it is: http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r2399=2043&r2032=2129&r398=2085&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r3=2007&r365=1960&r17637=1927&r10954=1977&r1=1833&r12694=1838&r16412=1864&r2359=1864&r14198=1864&r346=1805&r-3=1774&r2465=1793&r2382=1611&r2=0&r-1=1596&r3250=1684&r-9=1608&r1890=1596&r-2=1504&r-4=1600&r2184=1492&r-12=1579&r2615=1660&r-11=1557&r-7=1489&r3063=1421&r17846=1408&r-13=1559&r-8=1390&r2043=1380&r100012=1359&r18156=1199&r-10=1192&r350=0&r13543=0&r-6=0

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre I was planning on doing them both in about 15 minutes. But fuck you back.

Jon O'Neill

Jon O'Neill I wasn't gonna do anything but I'm just here to say fuck you both.

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Spoilers - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2399=2043&r2032=2129&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r365=1960&r3=2007&r17637=1927&r10954=1977&r1=1833&r12694=1838&r16412=1864&r2359=1864&r14198=0&r346=1805&r-3=1774&r2465=1793&r2382=1611&r-1=1596&r3250=1684&r-9=1608&r1890=1596&r-2=1504&r-4=1600&r2184=1492&r-12=1579&r2615=1660&r-11=1557&r-7=1489&r3063=1421&r17846=1408&r-13=1559&r-8=1390&r2043=1380&r100012=1359&r18156=1199&r-10=1192&r350=0&r13543=0&r-6=0&r2=0

Matt Morrison

Matt Morrison Fuck you Zarte. Thanks.

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Spoilers - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2399=2043&r2032=2129&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r365=1960&r3=2007&r17637=1927&r10954=1977&r1=1833&r12694=1838&r16412=1864&r2359=1864&r346=1805&r-3=1774&r2465=1793&r2382=1611&r-1=1596&r3250=1684&r-9=1608&r2615=1660&r1890=1596&r-2=1504&r-4=1600&r2184=1492&r-12=1579&r-11=1557&r-7=0&r3063=1421&r17846=1408&r-13=1559&r-8=1390&r2043=1380&r100012=1359&r18156=1199&r-10=1192&r350=0&r13543=0&r14198=0&r2=0&r-6=0

Matt Morrison

Matt Morrison Love you Zarte. Thanks.

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre <3

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2399=2043&r2032=2129&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r365=1960&r3=2007&r17637=1927&r10954=1977&r1=1833&r12694=1838&r16412=1864&r2359=1864&r346=1805&r-3=1774&r2465=1793&r2382=1611&r-1=1596&r3250=1684&r-9=1608&r2615=1660&r1890=1596&r-2=1504&r-4=1600&r2184=1492&r-12=1579&r-11=1557&r3063=1421&r17846=1408&r-13=1559&r100012=1359&r-8=0&r2043=1380&r18156=1199&r-10=1192&r-7=0&r350=0&r13543=0&r14198=0&r2=0&r-6=0

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre The above has spoilers as usual.

Gevin Chapwell

Gevin Chapwell "So this is updated along with Pro Ranks?" The ratings seem to change, but wouldn't it have been better to freeze them at the start of the tournament?

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Spoilers - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2399=2043&r2032=2129&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r365=0&r3=2007&r17637=1927&r10954=1977&r1=1833&r12694=1838&r16412=1864&r2359=1864&r346=1805&r-3=1774&r2465=1793&r2382=1611&r-1=1596&r3250=1684&r-9=1608&r2615=1660&r1890=1596&r-2=1504&r-4=1600&r2184=1492&r-12=1579&r-11=1557&r3063=1421&r17846=1408&r-13=1559&r100012=1359&r2043=1380&r18156=1199&r-10=1192&r-7=0&r-8=0&r350=0&r13543=0&r14198=0&r2=0&r-6=0

Matt Morrison

Matt Morrison Probably Gevin yes - and have an "update rankings" link at the top.

Charlie Reams

Charlie Reams And what do we say to feature requests in the comments?

Gevin Chapwell

Gevin Chapwell I wasn't sure it counted as a proper feature request, but here it comes...

Matt Morrison

Matt Morrison I'd like to see you come Gevin.

Matt Morrison

Matt Morrison Oops, sorry, feature request.

Jon O'Neill

Jon O'Neill I guess now this http://www.apterous.org/ticket_view.php?ticket=1320 has happened somebody needs to go and re-update them and post a new link!

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre *grumble* I'll do that then, shall I?

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Updated spoilers - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r2032=2129&r398=2085&r2399=2043&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r3=2007&r365=0&r13543=0&r17637=1927&r10954=1977&r1=1833&r12694=1838&r16412=1864&r2359=1864&r14198=0&r346=1805&r-3=1774&r2465=1793&r2382=1611&r2=0&r-1=1596&r3250=1684&r-9=1608&r1890=1596&r-2=1504&r2184=1492&r-12=1579&r2615=1660&r-4=1600&r-11=1557&r-7=0&r3063=1421&r17846=1408&r-13=1559&r-8=0&r350=0&r2043=1380&r-6=0&r100012=1359&r18156=1199&r-10=1192

Charlie Reams

Charlie Reams And where's Nick Wainwright?

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Oh don't start that again >_<

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Updated Spoilers http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2399=2043&r2032=2129&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r3=2007&r17637=1927&r10954=1977&r1=1833&r16412=1864&r12694=1838&r2465=1793&r2359=1864&r346=1805&r-3=1774&r2382=1611&r-1=1596&r3250=1684&r-9=1608&r2615=1660&r-2=1504&r1890=1596&r-4=1600&r2184=1492&r-12=1579&r-11=1557&r3063=0&r17846=1408&r-13=1559&r100012=1359&r2043=1380&r18156=1199&r-10=1192&r-7=0&r-8=0&r365=0&r350=0&r13543=0&r14198=0&r2=0&r-6=0

Gevin Chapwell

Gevin Chapwell You missed a casualty - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2399=2043&r2032=2129&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r3=2007&r17637=0&r10954=1977&r1=1833&r16412=1864&r12694=1838&r2465=1793&r2359=1864&r346=1805&r-3=1774&r2382=1611&r-1=1596&r3250=1684&r-9=1608&r2615=1660&r-2=1504&r1890=1596&r2184=1492&r-4=1600&r-12=1579&r-11=1557&r17846=1408&r-13=1559&r100012=1359&r2043=1380&r18156=1199&r-10=1192&r3063=0&r-7=0&r-8=0&r365=0&r350=0&r13543=0&r14198=0&r2=0&r-6=0

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Yes I did, thanks for that. I was struggling to remember them all when I had to start again.

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Spoilers - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2399=2043&r2032=2129&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r3=2007&r16412=1864&r10954=1977&r1=1833&r2465=1793&r12694=1838&r2359=1864&r346=1805&r-3=1774&r2382=1611&r-1=1596&r3250=1684&r-9=1608&r2615=1660&r-2=1504&r1890=0&r2184=1492&r-4=1600&r-12=1579&r-11=1557&r17846=1408&r-13=1559&r100012=1359&r2043=1380&r18156=1199&r-10=1192&r3063=0&r-7=0&r-8=0&r365=0&r17637=0&r350=0&r13543=0&r14198=0&r2=0&r-6=0

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Spoilers - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2399=2043&r2032=2129&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r3=2007&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r10954=1977&r2465=1793&r12694=1838&r2359=1864&r346=1805&r-3=1774&r2382=1611&r-1=1596&r3250=1684&r-9=1608&r-2=1504&r2615=1660&r2184=1492&r-4=1600&r-12=0&r-11=1557&r17846=1408&r-13=1559&r2043=1380&r100012=1359&r18156=1199&r-10=1192&r3063=0&r1890=0&r-7=0&r-8=0&r365=0&r17637=0&r350=0&r13543=0&r14198=0&r2=0&r-6=0

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2399=2043&r2032=2129&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r3=2007&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r10954=1977&r2465=1793&r12694=1838&r2359=1864&r346=1805&r-3=1774&r2382=1611&r-1=1596&r3250=1684&r-9=1608&r-2=1504&r2615=1660&r2184=1492&r-4=1600&r-11=1557&r17846=1408&r-13=1559&r2043=0&r100012=1359&r18156=1199&r-10=1192&r3063=0&r1890=0&r-12=0&r-7=0&r-8=0&r365=0&r17637=0&r350=0&r13543=0&r14198=0&r2=0&r-6=0

Matt Morrison

Matt Morrison Still appreciating this silently Zartizzle.

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre You're still very welcome M to the A to the TT

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Spoilers - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2399=2043&r2032=2129&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r3=2007&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r10954=1977&r2465=1793&r12694=1838&r2359=0&r-3=1774&r346=1805&r2382=1611&r-1=1596&r3250=1684&r-9=1608&r-2=1504&r2615=1660&r2184=1492&r-4=1600&r-11=1557&r17846=1408&r-13=1559&r100012=1359&r18156=1199&r-10=1192&r3063=0&r1890=0&r2043=0&r-12=0&r-7=0&r-8=0&r365=0&r17637=0&r350=0&r13543=0&r14198=0&r2=0&r-6=0

Matt Morrison

Matt Morrison Shame you can't pop in results and opponents - would be a sweet feature!

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre *channels Charlie* "blah... comments on pages... blah... feature request" ;P

Herbert Plank

Herbert Plank After Friday 25th's episode (spoilers): http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2399=2043&r2032=2129&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r3=2007&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r10954=0&r2465=1793&r12694=1838&r-3=1774&r346=1805&r2382=1611&r-1=1596&r3250=1684&r-9=1608&r2615=1660&r-2=1504&r2184=1492&r-11=1557&r-4=1600&r17846=1408&r-13=1559&r100012=1359&r18156=1199&r-10=1192&r3063=0&r1890=0&r-12=0&r2043=0&r2359=0&r-7=0&r-8=0&r365=0&r17637=0&r350=0&r13543=0&r14198=0&r2=0&r-6=0

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Thanks Hugh!

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Spoilers - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r2032=2129&r398=2085&r2399=2043&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r3=2007&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r2465=1793&r12694=1838&r-3=1774&r346=1805&r2382=1611&r-1=0&r3250=1684&r-9=1608&r-2=1504&r2615=1660&r2184=1492&r-4=1600&r-11=1557&r17846=0&r-13=1559&r100012=1359&r18156=1199&r-10=1192&r3063=0&r1890=0&r2043=0&r-12=0&r2359=0&r10954=0&r-7=0&r-8=0&r365=0&r17637=0&r350=0&r13543=0&r14198=0&r2=0&r-6=0

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Spoilers http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r2032=2129&r398=2085&r2399=2043&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r3=2007&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r2465=1793&r12694=1838&r-3=1774&r346=1805&r2382=1611&r3250=1684&r-9=1608&r-2=1504&r2615=1660&r2184=1492&r-4=1600&r-11=1557&r-13=1559&r100012=1359&r-10=1192&r18156=0&r-1=0&r17846=0&r3063=0&r1890=0&r2043=0&r-12=0&r2359=0&r10954=0&r-7=0&r-8=0&r365=0&r17637=0&r350=0&r13543=0&r14198=0&r2=0&r-6=0http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r2032=2129&r398=2085&r2399=2043&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r3=2007&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r2465=1793&r12694=1838&r-3=1774&r346=1805&r2382=1611&r3250=1684&r-9=1608&r-2=1504&r2615=1660&r2184=1492&r-4=1600&r-11=1557&r-13=1559&r100012=1359&r-10=1192&r18156=0&r-1=0&r17846=0&r3063=0&r1890=0&r2043=0&r-12=0&r2359=0&r10954=0&r-7=0&r-8=0&r365=0&r17637=0&r350=0&r13543=0&r14198=0&r2=0&r-6=0

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Oops - didn't mean to paste twice.

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre 31st Jan - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r2032=2129&r398=2085&r2399=2043&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r3=2007&r365=1960&r13543=1978&r17637=1927&r10954=1977&r1=1833&r12694=0&r16412=1864&r2359=1864&r14198=1864&r346=1805&r-3=1774&r2465=1793&r2382=1611&r2=1771&r-1=1596&r3250=1684&r-9=1608&r1890=1596&r-2=1504&r2184=1492&r-12=1579&r2615=1660&r-4=1600&r-11=1557&r-7=1489&r3063=1421&r17846=1408&r-13=1559&r-8=1390&r350=1440&r2043=1380&r-6=1456&r100012=1359&r18156=1199&r-10=1192

Graeme Cole

Graeme Cole Ye what?

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Whoops - you'd think I'd get better at this... http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r2032=2129&r398=2085&r2399=2043&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r3=2007&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r2465=1793&r12694=0&r-3=1774&r346=1805&r2382=1611&r3250=1684&r-9=1608&r-2=1504&r2615=1660&r2184=1492&r-4=1600&r-11=1557&r-13=1559&r100012=1359&r-10=1192&r18156=0&r-1=0&r17846=0&r3063=0&r1890=0&r2043=0&r-12=0&r2359=0&r10954=0&r-7=0&r-8=0&r365=0&r17637=0&r350=0&r13543=0&r14198=0&r2=0&r-6=0

Charlie Reams

Charlie Reams OOI have any of the results so far been "upsets" with regard to our rating?

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Mark Tournoff v Nick Deller was an upset, Charlie.

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre As was Jonathan against Ed

Charlie Reams

Charlie Reams Cool, thanks. 18/20 ain't bad.

Charlie Reams

Charlie Reams PS Graeme has updated his tournament diagram http://greem.co.uk/countdown/champ30.html to list the transmission dates.

Gevin Chapwell

Gevin Chapwell I don't think Zarte's list is necessarily exhaustive, Charlie, but I'm not posting anything more spoilerific than that here. Is this a spoilers page?

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre I'd say anything over 48 hours is fine Gev.

Charlie Reams

Charlie Reams Update! http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r2032=2129&r398=2085&r2399=2043&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r3=2007&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r2465=1793&r-3=1774&r346=1805&r2382=1611&r3250=0&r-2=1504&r-9=1608&r2615=1660&r2184=1492&r-4=1600&r-11=1557&r100012=1359&r-10=1192&r18156=0&r-1=0&r17846=0&r12694=0&r3063=0&r1890=0&r2043=0&r2359=0&r-12=0&r-13=0&r10954=0&r-7=0&r-8=0&r365=0&r17637=0&r350=0&r13543=0&r14198=0&r2=0&r-6=0

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Newwwww - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r2032=2129&r398=2085&r2399=2043&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r3=2007&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r2465=1793&r346=1805&r-3=1774&r2382=1611&r-2=1504&r-9=1608&r2615=1660&r2184=1492&r-4=0&r-11=1557&r100012=1359&r-10=1192&r18156=0&r-1=0&r17846=0&r12694=0&r3063=0&r1890=0&r2043=0&r2359=0&r-12=0&r-6=0&r3250=0&r-13=0&r10954=0&r-7=0&r-8=0&r365=0&r17637=0&r350=0&r13543=0&r14198=0&r2=0

Matt Morrison

Matt Morrison Woah woah woah, did X just move from 2nd to 3rd based on WINNING today?!

Nick Deller

Nick Deller No. We didn't get an update after a recent game, and that was when X moved.

Nick Deller

Nick Deller In fact, now I've checked where we're at, just "no" generally. New with added spoileriness! http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r2032=2129&r2399=2043&r398=2085&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r3=2007&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r2465=1793&r346=1805&r-3=1774&r2382=1611&r-9=1608&r-2=1504&r2615=0&r2184=1492&r-11=1557&r100012=1359&r-10=1192&r18156=0&r-1=0&r17846=0&r12694=0&r3063=0&r1890=0&r2043=0&r2359=0&r-12=0&r-4=0&r350=0&r13543=0&r-6=0&r3250=0&r-13=0&r10954=0&r-7=0&r-8=0&r365=0&r17637=0&r14198=0&r2=0

Matt Morrison

Matt Morrison Oh shit yeah I only looked at the date of Zarte's, not the time! Oops, and thanks Nick.

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2032=2129&r2399=2043&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r3=2007&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r2465=1793&r346=1805&r-3=1774&r2382=1611&r-2=1504&r-9=0&r2184=1492&r-11=1557&r100012=1359&r-10=1192&r18156=0&r-1=0&r17846=0&r12694=0&r3063=0&r1890=0&r2043=0&r-12=0&r2359=0&r-4=0&r350=0&r2615=0&r14198=0&r13543=0&r-6=0&r3250=0&r2=0&r-13=0&r10954=0&r-7=0&r-8=0&r365=0&r17637=0 - Spoilery spoilery goodness

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre More spoilery spoilery goodness - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2032=2129&r2399=2043&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r3=2007&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r2465=0&r346=1805&r-3=1774&r2382=1611&r-2=1504&r2184=1492&r-11=1557&r100012=1359&r-10=1192&r18156=0&r-1=0&r17846=0&r12694=0&r1890=0&r3063=0&r-8=0&r-9=0&r-7=0&r2043=0&r-12=0&r2359=0&r-4=0&r350=0&r2615=0&r14198=0&r13543=0&r-6=0&r3250=0&r2=0&r-13=0&r10954=0&r365=0&r17637=0

Jon O'Neill

Jon O'Neill So that's the last 16... cool!

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre omnomspoiler? http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2032=2129&r2399=2043&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r16412=1864&r3=2007&r1=1833&r346=1805&r-3=1774&r2382=1611&r-2=1504&r2184=0&r-11=1557&r100012=1359&r-10=1192&r17846=0&r12694=0&r3063=0&r18156=0&r-1=0&r1890=0&r365=0&r2465=0&r17637=0&r-9=0&r-8=0&r-7=0&r2043=0&r-12=0&r2359=0&r-4=0&r350=0&r2615=0&r14198=0&r13543=0&r-6=0&r3250=0&r2=0&r-13=0&r10954=0

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Argh mateys, spoilers ahoy - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2032=2129&r2399=2043&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r16412=1864&r3=2007&r1=1833&r346=1805&r-3=1774&r2382=1611&r-2=1504&r-11=1557&r100012=0&r-10=1192&r2184=0&r3063=0&r365=0&r2465=0&r17637=0&r18156=0&r-1=0&r17846=0&r12694=0&r1890=0&r-8=0&r-9=0&r-7=0&r-12=0&r2043=0&r2359=0&r14198=0&r2615=0&r-4=0&r350=0&r2=0&r13543=0&r-6=0&r3250=0&r-13=0&r10954=0

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre voici vos spoilers, haw-he-haw-he-haw - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2032=2129&r2399=2043&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r16412=1864&r3=2007&r1=1833&r346=1805&r-3=1774&r2382=1611&r-2=1504&r-11=0&r-10=1192&r2184=0&r3063=0&r365=0&r2465=0&r17637=0&r1890=0&r-9=0&r-7=0&r-8=0&r100012=0&r18156=0&r-1=0&r17846=0&r12694=0&r2043=0&r-12=0&r2359=0&r-4=0&r350=0&r2615=0&r14198=0&r13543=0&r2=0&r-6=0&r3250=0&r-13=0&r10954=0

Jon O'Neill

Jon O'Neill You'll run out soon.

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Nahhhh

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre eyyyyy Giuseppe, owa bouta some ni sapoilers.... http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2032=2129&r2399=2043&r2154=1993&r15742=1951&r16412=1864&r3=2007&r1=1833&r346=1805&r-3=0&r2382=1611&r-2=1504&r-10=1192&r2184=0&r3063=0&r365=0&r2465=0&r17637=0&r1890=0&r-7=0&r-9=0&r-8=0&r100012=0&r-11=0&r-12=0&r2615=0&r14198=0&r2=0&r18156=0&r-1=0&r17846=0&r12694=0&r2043=0&r2359=0&r-4=0&r350=0&r13543=0&r-6=0&r3250=0&r-13=0&r10954=0

Matt Morrison

Matt Morrison ooh 23-23!

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Cannot... get... breath... back... spoilers... http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r2399=2043&r398=2085&r2032=2129&r15742=1951&r2154=0&r16412=1864&r3=2007&r1=1833&r346=1805&r2382=1611&r-2=1504&r-10=1192&r2184=0&r3063=0&r365=0&r2465=0&r17637=0&r-3=0&r2043=0&r1890=0&r-7=0&r-8=0&r-9=0&r100012=0&r-4=0&r350=0&r-11=0&r-12=0&r13543=0&r14198=0&r2615=0&r2=0&r18156=0&r-1=0&r17846=0&r12694=0&r2359=0&r-6=0&r3250=0&r-13=0&r10954=0

Jon O'Neill

Jon O'Neill Well Matt, that certainly didn't last.

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre I-I-I-I-I like spoilers velllllly much - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r2399=2043&r398=2085&r2032=0&r15742=1951&r16412=1864&r3=2007&r1=1833&r346=1805&r2382=1611&r-2=1504&r-10=1192&r2184=0&r3063=0&r-3=0&r2043=0&r2154=0&r2359=0&r365=0&r2465=0&r17637=0&r-4=0&r350=0&r-6=0&r3250=0&r13543=0&r1890=0&r-7=0&r-8=0&r-9=0&r100012=0&r-11=0&r-12=0&r2615=0&r14198=0&r2=0&r18156=0&r-1=0&r17846=0&r12694=0&r-13=0&r10954=0

Rachael Moran

Rachael Moran Another great game. Well played, Innis and Kirk.

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Iiiiiii've got a lovely bunch of spoilernuts, here they just after the colon: http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r2399=2043&r398=2085&r3=2007&r15742=1951&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r346=1805&r2382=1611&r-2=1504&r-10=0&r2184=0&r3063=0&r-3=0&r2043=0&r2359=0&r2154=0&r365=0&r2465=0&r17637=0&r-4=0&r350=0&r-6=0&r3250=0&r13543=0&r1890=0&r-11=0&r-12=0&r2032=0&r10954=0&r-9=0&r-7=0&r-8=0&r100012=0&r-13=0&r2615=0&r14198=0&r2=0&r18156=0&r-1=0&r17846=0&r12694=0

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre I'm still spoilering, better than I ever diiiiid - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r2399=2043&r398=2085&r3=2007&r15742=1951&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r346=1805&r2382=1611&r-2=0&r2184=0&r3063=0&r-3=0&r2043=0&r2359=0&r2154=0&r365=0&r2465=0&r17637=0&r-4=0&r350=0&r-10=0&r17846=0&r-6=0&r3250=0&r13543=0&r1890=0&r12694=0&r-12=0&r-11=0&r2032=0&r10954=0&r-8=0&r-7=0&r-9=0&r100012=0&r-13=0&r2615=0&r14198=0&r2=0&r18156=0&r-1=0

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre And there are your quarter-finalists... for those of you who didn't know that in the first place, which with the amount I've had to avoid spoilers is like... none of you.

Jon O'Neill

Jon O'Neill Can I just point out that I am the only QFist who hasn't been to university... or as DoD branded me, the "working class hero". :D

Jon O'Neill

Jon O'Neill Also [don't read this sentence if you don't want spoilz] DoD and I are the only non-Maths students/graduates.

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre See I like Rawlo... but I also like Neil... but which is better? There's only one way to find out*... SPOILERS!!!!!! - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r2399=2043&r398=2085&r3=2007&r15742=1951&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r346=1805&r2382=0&r2184=0&r3063=0&r-2=0&r18156=0&r-1=0&r365=0&r2465=0&r-3=0&r2043=0&r2359=0&r2154=0&r17637=0&r-4=0&r350=0&r-10=0&r17846=0&r-6=0&r3250=0&r13543=0&r1890=0&r12694=0&r-11=0&r-12=0&r2032=0&r10954=0&r-9=0&r-7=0&r-8=0&r100012=0&r-13=0&r2615=0&r14198=0&r2=0

*You could also watch the show, but that'd make my poor gag even worse.

Adam Gillard

Adam Gillard you just spoilzed who was in the quarters though :O

Adam Gillard

Adam Gillard you just spoilzed who was in the quarters though :O

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre I'm pretty sure no-one's going to come to this page NOT looking for spoilers :P

Sam Cappleman-Lynes

Sam Cappleman-Lynes Funny how in those spoilers, 9 people who have been knocked out have a positive probability of reaching the final...

Matt Morrison

Matt Morrison The predictor finally broke!

Charlie Reams

Charlie Reams It's not actually broken, it's just that setting the rating to 0 is a hack to represent no chance of winning. But now there are so many of them that they do have a (slim) chance of beating each other. Replacing 0 with a larger negative number would fix that.

Matt Morrison

Matt Morrison Total negative spoilfication: http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r2399=2043&r398=2085&r3=2007&r15742=1951&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r346=1805&r-3=-9999&r2043=-9999&r2154=-9999&r2359=-9999&r-10=-9999&r17846=-9999&r-4=-9999&r350=-9999&r1890=-9999&r12694=-9999&r-6=-9999&r3250=-9999&r-11=-9999&r-12=-9999&r2032=-9999&r10954=-9999&r-9=-9999&r-8=-9999&r-7=-9999&r100012=-9999&r13543=-9999&r-13=-9999&r14198=-9999&r2615=-9999&r2=-9999&r-2=-9999&r-1=-9999&r2382=-9999&r2184=-9999&r365=-9999&r3063=-9999&r2465=-9999&r18156=-9999&r17637=-9999

Jon O'Neill

Jon O'Neill Well, that's made the world of difference.

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Total positive gingification - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r2399=2043&r398=2085&r3=2007&r15742=-9999&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r346=1805&r-2=-9999&r-1=-9999&r2382=-9999&r2184=-9999&r365=-9999&r-3=-9999&r-6=-9999&r-10=-9999&r-4=-9999&r-12=-9999&r-11=-9999&r-9=-9999&r-8=-9999&r-7=-9999&r-13=-9999&r2154=-9999&r2359=-9999&r3063=-9999&r2043=-9999&r350=-9999&r2=-9999&r2465=-9999&r2032=-9999&r10954=-9999&r2615=-9999&r14198=-9999&r12694=-9999&r18156=-9999&r17846=-9999&r13543=-9999&r1890=-9999&r3250=-9999&r17637=-9999&r100012=-9999

Charlie Reams

Charlie Reams www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2399=2043&r3=-9999&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r346=1805&r-2=-9999&r-1=-9999&r-10=-9999&r-7=-9999&r-8=-9999&r-9=-9999&r365=-9999&r-3=-9999&r-6=-9999&r-4=-9999&r-11=-9999&r-12=-9999&r-13=-9999&r2382=-9999&r2=-9999&r2184=-9999&r2032=-9999&r12694=-9999&r15742=-9999&r350=-9999&r10954=-9999&r14198=-9999&r2615=-9999&r2154=-9999&r2359=-9999&r3063=-9999&r2043=-9999&r18156=-9999&r17846=-9999&r2465=-9999&r13543=-9999&r1890=-9999&r3250=-9999&r17637=-9999&r100012=-9999

Charlie Reams

Charlie Reams http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2399=2043&r3=-9999&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r346=1805&r-2=-9999&r-1=-9999&r-10=-9999&r-7=-9999&r-8=-9999&r-9=-9999&r365=-9999&r-3=-9999&r-6=-9999&r-4=-9999&r-11=-9999&r-12=-9999&r-13=-9999&r2382=-9999&r2=-9999&r2184=-9999&r2032=-9999&r12694=-9999&r15742=-9999&r350=-9999&r10954=-9999&r14198=-9999&r2615=-9999&r2154=-9999&r2359=-9999&r3063=-9999&r2043=-9999&r18156=-9999&r17846=-9999&r2465=-9999&r13543=-9999&r1890=-9999&r3250=-9999&r17637=-9999&r100012=-9999

Jon O'Neill

Jon O'Neill GL DOD

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre I really don't want to admit that I'm not going to win the sweepstake, but http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2399=2043&r16412=1864&r1=1833&r346=-9999&r-10=-9999&r-13=-9999&r-1=-9999&r-2=-9999&r-12=-9999&r-11=-9999&r-9=-9999&r-7=-9999&r-8=-9999&r3=-9999&r2032=-9999&r10954=-9999&r2=-9999&r12694=-9999&r15742=-9999&r365=-9999&r14198=-9999&r2615=-9999&r-3=-9999&r-6=-9999&r-4=-9999&r2382=-9999&r2184=-9999&r17846=-9999&r350=-9999&r2154=-9999&r2359=-9999&r3063=-9999&r2043=-9999&r18156=-9999&r2465=-9999&r13543=-9999&r1890=-9999&r3250=-9999&r17637=-9999&r100012=-9999

:(

Show all comments
Rachael Moran

Rachael Moran "I don't want to die!"

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre and he didn't - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2399=2043&r16412=-9999&r1=1833&r-1=-9999&r-2=-9999&r-3=-9999&r-10=-9999&r-13=-9999&r-12=-9999&r-11=-9999&r346=-9999&r-6=-9999&r-7=-9999&r-8=-9999&r-9=-9999&r-4=-9999&r3=-9999&r365=-9999&r350=-9999&r2032=-9999&r10954=-9999&r2=-9999&r12694=-9999&r15742=-9999&r2615=-9999&r14198=-9999&r2382=-9999&r2359=-9999&r2154=-9999&r2184=-9999&r2043=-9999&r3063=-9999&r18156=-9999&r17846=-9999&r3250=-9999&r2465=-9999&r13543=-9999&r1890=-9999&r17637=-9999&r100012=-9999

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre So... the final's now known... - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r2399=2043&r398=2085&r1=-9999&r-2=-9999&r-1=-9999&r-3=-9999&r346=-9999&r-6=-9999&r365=-9999&r-4=-9999&r350=-9999&r-10=-9999&r-13=-9999&r-12=-9999&r-11=-9999&r-8=-9999&r-7=-9999&r-9=-9999&r2184=-9999&r2382=-9999&r3=-9999&r2359=-9999&r2154=-9999&r2043=-9999&r18156=-9999&r3063=-9999&r2032=-9999&r10954=-9999&r12694=-9999&r17846=-9999&r15742=-9999&r2465=-9999&r17637=-9999&r16412=-9999&r2=-9999&r3250=-9999&r14198=-9999&r2615=-9999&r13543=-9999&r1890=-9999&r100012=-9999

Gevin Chapwell

Gevin Chapwell The winner is known! http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=2085&r2399=-9999&r1=-9999&r-10=-9999&r-2=-9999&r-1=-9999&r3=-9999&r-13=-9999&r346=-9999&r-12=-9999&r-11=-9999&r-3=-9999&r2382=-9999&r2184=-9999&r1890=-9999&r-8=-9999&r-7=-9999&r-9=-9999&r365=-9999&r2359=-9999&r2154=-9999&r2032=-9999&r-6=-9999&r2043=-9999&r17846=-9999&r12694=-9999&r15742=-9999&r18156=-9999&r3063=-9999&r10954=-9999&r2=-9999&r-4=-9999&r350=-9999&r100012=-9999&r17637=-9999&r2465=-9999&r16412=-9999&r3250=-9999&r14198=-9999&r2615=-9999&r13543=-9999

Nick Deller

Nick Deller I count 10 wins against the predictor, including all 4 tie-breaks. Pretty solid predicting!

Matt Morrison

Matt Morrison Fixed that for you Gev: http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=9999&r-1=-9999&r346=-9999&r-2=-9999&r-3=-9999&r-10=-9999&r1=-9999&r3=-9999&r-13=-9999&r-12=-9999&r-11=-9999&r3063=-9999&r18156=-9999&r2184=-9999&r2359=-9999&r2043=-9999&r2382=-9999&r2154=-9999&r15742=-9999&r17846=-9999&r1890=-9999&r12694=-9999&r-6=-9999&r350=-9999&r365=-9999&r-4=-9999&r-7=-9999&r-8=-9999&r-9=-9999&r10954=-9999&r2032=-9999&r13543=-9999&r2399=-9999&r2465=-9999&r3250=-9999&r17637=-9999&r16412=-9999&r100012=-9999&r2=-9999&r2615=-9999&r14198=-9999

Zarte Siempre

Zarte Siempre Actually, I think this would be fixing it, technically - http://www.apterous.org/predictor.php?r398=9999&r-1=-9999&r346=-9999&r-2=-9999&r-3=-9999&r-10=-9999&r1=-9999&r3=-9999&r-13=-9999&r-12=-9999&r-11=-9999&r3063=-9999&r18156=-9999&r2184=-9999&r2359=-9999&r2043=-9999&r2382=-9999&r2154=-9999&r15742=-9999&r17846=-9999&r1890=-9999&r12694=-9999&r-6=-9999&r350=-9999&r365=-9999&r-4=-9999&r-7=-9999&r-8=-9999&r-9=-9999&r10954=-9999&r2032=-9999&r13543=-9999&r2399=0&r2465=-9999&r3250=-9999&r17637=-9999&r16412=-9999&r100012=-9999&r2=-9999&r2615=-9999&r14198=-9999

Thomas Carey

Thomas Carey Heh, that also puts Christine Hunt (predicted least likely before tournament) as 3rd.

This page shows our predictions for the 30th Birthday Championship, based on the Raccoonomatic game predictor and the ratings shown. You can read about where the ratings came from and how we attempt to predict the games in Raccoon's blog post on the subject. The tournament structure is as shown in this handy diagram by Graeme Cole. If you disagree with our ratings, you can edit them and re-run the predictor with the button at the bottom.

#PlayerProbability
of winning
Probability of
reaching final
Rating
1stConor Travers18%26%
2ndInnis Carson13%18%
3rdJack Worsley11%20%
4thKirk Bevins9%15%
5thJack Hurst9%18%
6thSteven Briers7%17%
7thChris Davies7%16%
8thMark D5%12%
9thEddie McCullagh4%11%
10thAdam Gillard4%6%
11thJonathan Rawlinson3%7%
12thJon O'Neill2%6%
13thNick Deller2%4%
14thGraeme Cole2%4%
15thDavid O'Donnell2%5%
16thDavid Williams1%5%
17thChris Wills1%4%
18thAndrew Hulme0.4%2%
19thNeil Zussman0.1%1%
20thPaul Keane0.1%1%
21stBen Wilson0.1%0.3%
22ndBarry Grossman0.04%0.3%
23rdKai Laddiman0.03%0.2%
24thTom Hargreaves0.03%0.2%
25thDave Hoskisson0.03%0.4%
26thTom Rowell0.02%0.3%
27thWayne Kelly0.01%0.1%
28thJill Bright0.01%0.1%
29thMark Tournoff0.01%0.05%
30thChris Hawkins0.01%0.05%
31stDavid Webb0.003%0.03%
32ndPeter Lee0.002%0.05%
33rdSandie Simonis0.002%0.03%
34thJohn Ashmore0.001%0.01%
35thJackie McLeod0.0002%0.003%
36thNick W0.0002%0.003%
37thNicki Sellars0.0002%0.003%
38thMartin Bishop0.0001%0.003%
39thDarryl Francis0.0001%0.001%
40thMike Whiteoak0.00003%0.002%
41stChristine Hunt0.00001%0.0004%

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