Statland: Records by beatability

	Adam Gillard Paul's superb 195 has lifted Hypertouch Letters Attack away from the 100% formats into 64th place on its own.
	Charlie Reams Italian Letters Attack has also been elevated from the 100% zone, nice work Anglo.
	Adam Gillard Snapshot of the 4 records I set in the last 24 hours - WAS: 36th Spoilage 9 10%; 37th Unlimited Flat 9 12%; 45th Spoilage 15 21%; 54th Spoilage Letters Attack 39%. NOW (in ascending order): 32nd Spoilage 15 6%; 27th Spoilage LA 4%; 18th Unlimited Flat 9 3%; 9th Spoilage 9 1%. Going to be proper difficult to beat that last one even with a following wind, despite not having solved the conundrum.
	Adam Gillard Not many formats left at 100% now. Good work from Amie on the Russian 9 and 15 rounders.
	Jon O'Neill Is it me or is this list upside-down to what you expect coming in? Or should it be called "Records by unbeatability?"
	Adam Gillard Ascending beatability; makes sense to me.
	Jon O'Neill Fair enough, you probably look at this page more than anyone.
	Gevin Chapwell Doesn't make sense to me. Records by x would normally mean descending. Top scores would start with the highest, for example. So yeah, it is upside-down.
	Adam Gillard Are goaty formats' beatability determined by max available or metamax available? Either way, Goatdown Standard looks surprisingly beatable.
	Adam Gillard Well done Bob! Down to 1% beatability now.
	Stephen Moore What does 1 in ∞ mean?
	Stephen Moore It updated overnight - it is now beatable one in 3,314 games!
	Catherine Mullan Why is that?
	Stephen Moore Whoops, I was looking at the Junior 9 Rounder score, not the Junior 15, in 23rd at 1 in 243.
	Jon Stitcher Players don't get accused of cheating, they get discovered cheating.
Show all comments
	Gevin Chapwell Just looking at this, I was thinking that the beatability becomes a bit inaccurate when it's very low. Octorock 9 is 1 in infinity, even though it is beatable, presumably because a higher max has never been seen. So maybe rather than using stats from whole games, a calculation that uses round-by-round information might be more accurate.
	Johnny Canuck Agreed that the 1 in ∞ figure is misleading, especially for a rather rare format-variant combination. Perhaps a question mark ("1 in ?") or the current number of attempts followed by a plus sign ("1 in 1,009+") would be more suitable.
	Mike Lee Are these beatability figures getting adjusted now that we’ve just had the 2024 dictionary cull???
	Matthew Brockwell These figures are calculated by the empirical data of actual games played over all time. Given how rarely some of these variants are played I don’t think it is worth it, they will naturally adjust over time, and already include pre-2015 data.
	Callum Todd Yes I believe the formula is something like: The number of games ever played in this format (Attempts Column) divided by: The number of those games in which the maximum available score was higher than the current high score equals: the Beatable 1 game in... column That as a percentage gives the Beatability score. So for example the 15 rounder, there have been 831,626 of those played in apterous history. 37 of these have hada max score greater than 179. Therefore the high score is beatable 37 games in 831,626, or 1 game in 22,476, 0.004% of the time. I'm not sure how many of those 37 games occurred during the bloated dictionary era, but the 13 I can see all did: https://www.apterous.org/viewformat.php?format=269&section=3 I don't expect it will be reasonably possible to recalculate these scores based on new dictionary as that would required recomputing the maximum of more or less every round ever played in apterous history.

Major places

Statland: Records by beatability

This table shows all current beatable high scores ordered by "beatability". This is defined as the proportion of games in which the maximum score is higher than the current high score. The table also shows how many games one would have to play, on average, to get even one chance to beat the current record. Formats in which the maximum possible score has already been achieved are not shown.

#	Format	High score	Beatability	Beatable 1 game in...	Attempts
1st	Junior 9 Rounder	106	0%	∞	10,186
1st	Lockdown 9	79	0%	∞	2,001
3rd	15 Rounder	179	0.004%	25,651	1,000,402
4th	Old 15	170	0.005%	22,019	330,287
5th	9 Rounder	117	0.01%	13,667	123,003
6th	Nice 9	83	0.02%	6,574	13,147
7th	Unlimited Jnr Letters Attack	144	0.02%	5,564	16,692
8th	Bullet Letters Attack	228	0.02%	4,809	28,853
9th	Unlimited Jnr 15	125	0.02%	4,208	12,625
10th	Unlimited Jnr 9	78	0.03%	3,871	7,742
11th	Mocktorun	1165	0.04%	2,540	12,700
12th	Octorock 9	74	0.05%	2,113	2,113
13th	Octorock Numbers Attack	186	0.1%	1,912	9,559
14th	Letters Attack	218	0.1%	1,742	55,731
15th	CSW 9 rounder	116	0.1%	1,630	1,630
16th	Blitz	178	0.1%	1,486	5,942
17th	Instant Letters Attack	200	0.1%	1,456	43,679
18th	Goat Attack	299	0.1%	1,215	48,582
19th	Unlimited 9	103	0.1%	1,097	6,581
20th	Bullet 9	107	0.1%	990	11,875
21st	Unlimited Flat 9	98	0.1%	899	1,797
22nd	Spoilage 15	426	0.1%	870	3,481
23rd	Spoilage 9	261	0.1%	697	2,789
24th	Lightning Goatblitz	216	0.2%	633	9,490
25th	Unlimited Blitz	169	0.2%	615	1,845
26th	Junior Letters Attack	194	0.2%	596	6,554
27th	Speed Letters Attack	214	0.2%	564	10,154
28th	Unlimited 15	164	0.2%	551	6,606
29th	Speed 9	106	0.2%	544	14,677
30th	Goatdown Jnr. Letters Attack	137	0.2%	518	3,626
31st	Speedgoat	215	0.2%	498	15,453
32nd	Bullet 15	164	0.2%	450	18,012
33rd	Lockdown Jnr 9	70	0.2%	444	1,332
34th	Spoilage Letters Attack	623	0.2%	442	4,864
35th	CSW 15 rounder	168	0.2%	428	1,711
36th	Unlimited Letters Attack	214	0.3%	385	12,697
37th	CSW Letters Attack	216	0.3%	302	3,624
38th	Nice 15	133	0.3%	298	6,554
39th	Speed 15	161	0.3%	293	9,367
40th	Nice Letters Attack	167	0.3%	286	18,578
41st	Lockdown Jnr Letters Attack	125	0.4%	273	1,366
42nd	Hyper 15	168	0.4%	254	7,105
43rd	Nasty 9	77	0.4%	252	1,767
44th	Octolock 9	73	0.4%	248	990
45th	Instant 15	152	0.4%	242	12,338
46th	Flat 9	74	0.5%	218	3,707
47th	Instant 9	96	0.5%	205	11,482
48th	Hyper Unlimited Letters Attack	262	0.5%	202	9,875
49th	Goatdown Jnr. 15	113	1%	194	3,304
50th	Deepdown Letters Attack	136	1%	192	2,113
51st	Goatdown Standard	214	1%	189	17,197
52nd	Lockdown Jnr 15	110	1%	169	2,027
53rd	Lightning 15	161	1%	136	3,254
54th	Goatblitz	213	1%	130	15,897
55th	Touchdown 15	137	1%	130	4,287
56th	Hyper Unlimited 9	113	1%	129	2,456
57th	Berserk 9	104	1%	125	6,356
58th	Junior 15 Rounder	151	1%	102	10,548
59th	Berserk Letters Attack	204	1%	83	3,660
60th	Berserk 15	158	1%	78	6,324
61st	Flat 15	121	1%	69	1,786
62nd	Touchdown 9	83	1%	67	2,546
63rd	Hyper Unlimited 15	186	2%	66	3,224
64th	Hyper Letters Attack	208	2%	60	5,694
65th	Hyper Unlimited Flat 9	107	2%	56	1,408
66th	Lockdown 15	125	2%	55	2,995
67th	Touchdown Letters Attack	174	2%	41	6,403
68th	Nice Blitz	129	2%	40	3,602
69th	Nasty Letters Attack	147	3%	34	6,903
70th	French 9 Rounder	99	3%	34	3,238
71st	Octolock 15	114	3%	34	1,981
72nd	Hypergoat 9	118	3%	34	1,744
73rd	Octorock Letters Attack	140	3%	33	3,167
74th	Portuguese 9 Rounder	96	3%	32	1,356
75th	Nasty 15	122	3%	32	2,396
76th	Duckdown 9	149	3%	31	1,924
77th	Octolock Numbers Attack	182	3%	30	6,093
78th	Hypergoat Letters Attack	250	3%	30	14,843
79th	Hypertouch 9	95	3%	30	1,661
80th	Octorock 15	114	4%	28	2,848
81st	Lockdown Letters Attack	151	4%	28	1,818
82nd	Hyper 9	99	4%	27	5,210
83rd	Lightning Goatdown 15	204	4%	22	3,177
84th	Hypergoat Blitz	185	5%	21	2,459
85th	Touchblitz	134	6%	18	1,692
86th	French Letters Attack	203	6%	17	11,695
87th	German 9	82	7%	14	1,531
88th	Hyper Nasty Letters Attack	184	8%	12	2,525
89th	Beanstalk Letters Attack	198	8%	12	3,551
90th	Welsh 9 rounder	81	9%	11	846
91st	Russian 15	112	9%	11	3,484
92nd	German 15	132	10%	10	3,334
93rd	Spanish 9	102	11%	9	2,671
94th	Hyper Blitz	153	11%	9	1,258
95th	French 15 Rounder	152	11%	9	5,787
96th	Hypergoatdown	173	12%	8	3,944
97th	Portuguese 15 Rounder	148	13%	8	1,739
98th	Russian 9	69	13%	8	856
99th	Octolock Letters Attack	134	14%	7	681
100th	Italian 15	158	16%	6	2,002
101st	Old Mocktorun	1054	16%	6	912
102nd	Nasty Blitz	117	17%	6	1,166
103rd	Russian Letters Attack	128	17%	6	7,642
104th	Hyperlock 9	86	18%	6	464
105th	Duckdown 15	238	21%	5	2,603
106th	Hyper Nasty 9	85	22%	4	1,152
107th	Spanish 15	157	22%	4	3,731
108th	German Letters Attack	155	23%	4	6,465
109th	Portuguese Letters Attack	180	28%	4	2,045
110th	Dutch 15	132	33%	3	1,745
111th	Hyperlock Letters Attack	180	34%	3	1,056
112th	Italian 9	91	35%	3	1,416
113th	Hyperlock 15	140	36%	3	1,874
114th	Hypertouch 15	154	37%	3	2,526
115th	Catalan 9	94	41%	2	335
116th	Italian Letters Attack	199	41%	2	4,183
117th	Duckdown Letters Attack	345	42%	2	2,070
118th	Dutch 9	78	45%	2	779
119th	Hypertouchblitz	154	46%	2	1,715
120th	Hyper Nasty 15	139	53%	2	1,459
121st	Hypertouch Letters Attack	206	55%	2	5,860
122nd	Greek 9	77	55%	2	2,587
123rd	Latin 9	98	59%	2	1,099
124th	Hyper Nasty Blitz	135	65%	2	704
125th	Spanish Letters Attack	190	70%	1	3,359
126th	Welsh 15 rounder	114	86%	1	2,629
127th	Hebrew 9 Rounder	69	93%	1	419
128th	Dutch Letters Attack	148	93%	1	2,035
129th	Catalan 15	134	96%	1	379
130th	Greek 15	118	96%	1	1,296
131st	Latin 15	151	97%	1	2,394
132nd	Catalan Letters Attack	174	98%	1	490
133rd	Latin Letters Attack	202	99%	1	1,272
134th	Greek Letters Attack	142	99.8%	1	1,616
135th	Hebrew Letters Attack	129	99.9%	1	675
136th	Spoilage Numbers Attack	180	100%	1	10,992
136th	Welsh Letters Attack	127	100%	1	2,060
136th	Hyper Nasty Conundrum Attack	190	100%	1	1,523
136th	Omelette Blitz	148	100%	1	1,518
136th	Spoilage Conundrum Attack	150	100%	1	1,157
136th	Finnish 15 Rounder	99	100%	1	1,124
136th	Touchdown Jnr Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	1,037
136th	Finnish Letters Attack	110	100%	1	940
136th	Finnish 9 Rounder	58	100%	1	774
136th	German Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	593
136th	Hebrew 15 Rounder	106	100%	1	535
136th	Hypertouch Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	352
136th	Portuguese Conundrum Attack	150	100%	1	335
136th	Spanish Conundrum Attack	100	100%	1	310
136th	Italian Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	242
136th	Greek Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	225
136th	Latin Conundrum Attack	100	100%	1	204
136th	Russian Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	118
136th	Dutch Conundrum Attack	70	100%	1	114
136th	Hebrew Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	72
136th	Finnish Conundrum Attack	60	100%	1	48
136th	Catalan Conundrum Attack	80	100%	1	41

Last updated: 2026-05-26 17:30:00 (13 days, 17 hours, 21 minutes, and 32 seconds ago.)
Update time: 1 minute and 59 seconds.
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Statland: Records by beatability