Statland: Records by beatability

	Adam Gillard Paul's superb 195 has lifted Hypertouch Letters Attack away from the 100% formats into 64th place on its own.
	Charlie Reams Italian Letters Attack has also been elevated from the 100% zone, nice work Anglo.
	Adam Gillard Snapshot of the 4 records I set in the last 24 hours - WAS: 36th Spoilage 9 10%; 37th Unlimited Flat 9 12%; 45th Spoilage 15 21%; 54th Spoilage Letters Attack 39%. NOW (in ascending order): 32nd Spoilage 15 6%; 27th Spoilage LA 4%; 18th Unlimited Flat 9 3%; 9th Spoilage 9 1%. Going to be proper difficult to beat that last one even with a following wind, despite not having solved the conundrum.
	Adam Gillard Not many formats left at 100% now. Good work from Amie on the Russian 9 and 15 rounders.
	Jon O'Neill Is it me or is this list upside-down to what you expect coming in? Or should it be called "Records by unbeatability?"
	Adam Gillard Ascending beatability; makes sense to me.
	Jon O'Neill Fair enough, you probably look at this page more than anyone.
	Gevin Chapwell Doesn't make sense to me. Records by x would normally mean descending. Top scores would start with the highest, for example. So yeah, it is upside-down.
	Adam Gillard Are goaty formats' beatability determined by max available or metamax available? Either way, Goatdown Standard looks surprisingly beatable.
	Adam Gillard Well done Bob! Down to 1% beatability now.
	Stephen Moore What does 1 in ∞ mean?
	Stephen Moore It updated overnight - it is now beatable one in 3,314 games!
	Catherine Mullan Why is that?
	Stephen Moore Whoops, I was looking at the Junior 9 Rounder score, not the Junior 15, in 23rd at 1 in 243.
	Jon Stitcher Players don't get accused of cheating, they get discovered cheating.
Show all comments
	Gevin Chapwell Just looking at this, I was thinking that the beatability becomes a bit inaccurate when it's very low. Octorock 9 is 1 in infinity, even though it is beatable, presumably because a higher max has never been seen. So maybe rather than using stats from whole games, a calculation that uses round-by-round information might be more accurate.
	Johnny Canuck Agreed that the 1 in ∞ figure is misleading, especially for a rather rare format-variant combination. Perhaps a question mark ("1 in ?") or the current number of attempts followed by a plus sign ("1 in 1,009+") would be more suitable.
	Mike Lee Are these beatability figures getting adjusted now that we’ve just had the 2024 dictionary cull???
	Matthew Brockwell These figures are calculated by the empirical data of actual games played over all time. Given how rarely some of these variants are played I don’t think it is worth it, they will naturally adjust over time, and already include pre-2015 data.
	Callum Todd Yes I believe the formula is something like: The number of games ever played in this format (Attempts Column) divided by: The number of those games in which the maximum available score was higher than the current high score equals: the Beatable 1 game in... column That as a percentage gives the Beatability score. So for example the 15 rounder, there have been 831,626 of those played in apterous history. 37 of these have hada max score greater than 179. Therefore the high score is beatable 37 games in 831,626, or 1 game in 22,476, 0.004% of the time. I'm not sure how many of those 37 games occurred during the bloated dictionary era, but the 13 I can see all did: https://www.apterous.org/viewformat.php?format=269&section=3 I don't expect it will be reasonably possible to recalculate these scores based on new dictionary as that would required recomputing the maximum of more or less every round ever played in apterous history.

Major places

Statland: Records by beatability

This table shows all current beatable high scores ordered by "beatability". This is defined as the proportion of games in which the maximum score is higher than the current high score. The table also shows how many games one would have to play, on average, to get even one chance to beat the current record. Formats in which the maximum possible score has already been achieved are not shown.

#	Format	High score	Beatability	Beatable 1 game in...	Attempts
1st	Junior 9 Rounder	106	0%	∞	9,408
1st	Lockdown 9	79	0%	∞	1,983
3rd	15 Rounder	179	0.004%	22,562	857,364
4th	Old 15	170	0.005%	21,938	329,067
5th	9 Rounder	117	0.01%	13,429	107,430
6th	Nice 9	83	0.02%	6,397	12,794
7th	Bullet Letters Attack	228	0.02%	4,597	27,581
8th	Unlimited Jnr Letters Attack	144	0.02%	4,442	13,326
9th	Unlimited Jnr 15	125	0.03%	3,898	11,693
10th	Unlimited Jnr 9	78	0.03%	3,622	7,243
11th	Mocktorun	1165	0.05%	2,167	10,836
12th	Octorock 9	74	0.1%	1,919	1,919
13th	Octorock Numbers Attack	186	0.1%	1,760	8,802
14th	CSW 9 rounder	116	0.1%	1,612	1,612
15th	Letters Attack	218	0.1%	1,581	50,596
16th	Blitz	178	0.1%	1,424	5,694
17th	Instant Letters Attack	200	0.1%	1,402	42,064
18th	Goat Attack	299	0.1%	1,160	46,393
19th	Bullet 9	107	0.1%	967	11,609
20th	Unlimited Flat 9	98	0.1%	869	1,737
21st	Spoilage 15	426	0.1%	832	3,326
22nd	Spoilage 9	261	0.1%	683	2,733
23rd	Lightning Goatblitz	216	0.2%	610	9,145
24th	Unlimited 9	102	0.2%	607	6,065
25th	Speed 9	106	0.2%	571	12,555
26th	Unlimited Blitz	169	0.2%	569	1,707
27th	Speed Letters Attack	214	0.2%	510	9,171
28th	Junior Letters Attack	194	0.2%	507	5,578
29th	Speedgoat	215	0.2%	488	15,118
30th	Goatdown Jnr. Letters Attack	137	0.2%	474	3,319
31st	Bullet 15	164	0.2%	438	17,536
32nd	Lockdown Jnr 9	70	0.2%	429	1,287
33rd	CSW 15 rounder	168	0.2%	412	1,647
34th	Spoilage Letters Attack	623	0.3%	399	4,394
35th	Unlimited Letters Attack	214	0.3%	335	10,711
36th	CSW Letters Attack	216	0.3%	329	3,288
37th	Nice 15	133	0.3%	291	6,398
38th	Nice Letters Attack	167	0.4%	273	17,772
39th	Speed 15	161	0.4%	256	7,938
40th	Octolock 9	73	0.4%	245	980
41st	Lockdown Jnr Letters Attack	125	0.4%	244	1,219
42nd	Nasty 9	77	0.4%	240	1,679
43rd	Goatdown Jnr. 15	113	0.4%	231	3,001
44th	Hyper 15	168	0.5%	220	6,162
45th	Unlimited 15	162	0.5%	216	5,828
46th	Flat 9	74	0.5%	215	3,648
47th	Instant 15	152	0.5%	207	10,326
48th	Instant 9	96	1%	196	10,965
49th	Hyper Unlimited Letters Attack	262	1%	190	9,333
50th	Goatdown Standard	214	1%	179	16,313
51st	Deepdown Letters Attack	136	1%	166	1,830
52nd	Lockdown Jnr 15	110	1%	154	1,853
53rd	Touchdown 15	137	1%	127	4,060
54th	Hyper Unlimited 9	113	1%	126	2,264
55th	Goatblitz	213	1%	125	15,300
56th	Lightning 15	161	1%	123	2,960
57th	Berserk 9	104	1%	115	5,731
58th	Junior 15 Rounder	151	1%	100	9,987
59th	Berserk 15	158	1%	76	6,061
60th	Touchdown 9	83	1%	72	2,507
61st	Berserk Letters Attack	204	1%	70	3,083
62nd	Flat 15	121	2%	67	1,729
63rd	Hyper Unlimited 15	186	2%	61	2,968
64th	Hyper Unlimited Flat 9	107	2%	58	1,384
65th	Hyper Letters Attack	208	2%	56	5,278
66th	Lockdown 15	125	2%	53	2,786
67th	Nice Blitz	129	2%	40	3,401
68th	Touchdown Letters Attack	174	3%	38	5,728
69th	Hypergoat 9	118	3%	33	1,704
70th	French 9 Rounder	99	3%	33	3,176
71st	Portuguese 9 Rounder	96	3%	33	1,354
72nd	Nasty Letters Attack	147	3%	32	6,322
73rd	Octolock 15	114	3%	32	1,840
74th	Nasty 15	122	3%	30	2,266
75th	Duckdown 9	149	3%	30	1,882
76th	Hypertouch 9	95	3%	30	1,654
77th	Hypergoat Letters Attack	250	3%	29	13,869
78th	Octolock Numbers Attack	182	4%	28	5,055
79th	Octorock 15	114	4%	27	2,750
80th	Hyper 9	99	4%	26	4,984
81st	Octorock Letters Attack	140	4%	26	2,510
82nd	Lockdown Letters Attack	151	4%	26	1,696
83rd	Lightning Goatdown 15	204	5%	22	3,133
84th	Hypergoat Blitz	185	5%	21	2,348
85th	French Letters Attack	203	5%	18	9,445
86th	Touchblitz	134	6%	18	1,649
87th	German 9	82	7%	14	1,491
88th	Welsh 9 rounder	81	9%	11	745
89th	Russian 15	112	9%	11	3,479
90th	German 15	132	10%	10	3,280
91st	Hyper Nasty Letters Attack	184	10%	10	2,027
92nd	Spanish 9	102	11%	9	2,647
93rd	Beanstalk Letters Attack	198	11%	9	2,661
94th	Hyper Blitz	153	11%	9	1,223
95th	French 15 Rounder	152	11%	9	5,740
96th	Portuguese 15 Rounder	148	13%	8	1,734
97th	Russian 9	69	13%	8	851
98th	Hypergoatdown	173	13%	8	3,276
99th	Italian 15	158	16%	6	1,981
100th	Old Mocktorun	1054	16%	6	881
101st	Octolock Letters Attack	134	17%	6	583
102nd	Russian Letters Attack	128	17%	6	7,610
103rd	Hyperlock 9	86	18%	6	457
104th	Nasty Blitz	117	18%	6	1,104
105th	Duckdown 15	238	22%	5	2,505
106th	Hyper Nasty 9	85	22%	5	1,118
107th	Spanish 15	157	22%	4	3,701
108th	German Letters Attack	155	23%	4	5,977
109th	Portuguese Letters Attack	180	27%	4	1,954
110th	Italian 9	91	35%	3	1,395
111th	Hyperlock 15	140	37%	3	1,719
112th	Hyperlock Letters Attack	180	37%	3	876
113th	Hypertouch 15	154	38%	3	2,471
114th	Catalan 9	94	40%	2	331
115th	Duckdown Letters Attack	345	43%	2	1,992
116th	Dutch 9	78	45%	2	754
117th	Hypertouchblitz	154	46%	2	1,643
118th	Hyper Nasty 15	139	56%	2	1,304
119th	Hypertouch Letters Attack	206	56%	2	5,468
120th	Latin 9	98	58%	2	1,019
121st	Italian Letters Attack	186	67%	2	3,194
122nd	Spanish Letters Attack	190	70%	1	3,125
123rd	Welsh 15 rounder	114	86%	1	2,605
124th	Hyper Nasty Blitz	132	87%	1	578
125th	Hebrew 9 Rounder	69	93%	1	416
126th	Dutch Letters Attack	148	93%	1	1,983
127th	Catalan 15	134	96%	1	376
128th	Latin 15	151	97%	1	2,375
129th	Catalan Letters Attack	174	98%	1	487
130th	Latin Letters Attack	202	99%	1	1,254
131st	Greek 15	116	99%	1	798
132nd	Dutch 15	114	99%	1	1,733
133rd	Hebrew Letters Attack	129	99.9%	1	673
134th	Greek Letters Attack	137	99.9%	1	1,343
135th	Spoilage Numbers Attack	180	100%	1	9,110
135th	Instant Conundrum Attack	198	100%	1	5,405
135th	Greek 9	61	100%	1	2,105
135th	Welsh Letters Attack	127	100%	1	2,022
135th	Omelette Blitz	148	100%	1	1,394
135th	Hyper Nasty Conundrum Attack	190	100%	1	1,132
135th	Finnish 15 Rounder	99	100%	1	1,118
135th	Spoilage Conundrum Attack	150	100%	1	1,099
135th	Touchdown Jnr Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	812
135th	Finnish Letters Attack	110	100%	1	780
135th	Finnish 9 Rounder	58	100%	1	767
135th	German Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	570
135th	Hebrew 15 Rounder	106	100%	1	533
135th	Portuguese Conundrum Attack	150	100%	1	333
135th	Spanish Conundrum Attack	100	100%	1	306
135th	Hypertouch Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	305
135th	Italian Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	238
135th	Latin Conundrum Attack	100	100%	1	199
135th	Greek Conundrum Attack	50	100%	1	183
135th	Russian Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	117
135th	Dutch Conundrum Attack	70	100%	1	111
135th	Hebrew Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	72
135th	Finnish Conundrum Attack	60	100%	1	47
135th	Catalan Conundrum Attack	80	100%	1	40

Last updated: 2024-11-09 10:48:15 (11 days, 23 hours, 57 minutes, and 17 seconds ago.)
Update time: 2 minutes and 13 seconds.
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Statland: Records by beatability