Statland: Records by beatability

	Adam Gillard Paul's superb 195 has lifted Hypertouch Letters Attack away from the 100% formats into 64th place on its own.
	Charlie Reams Italian Letters Attack has also been elevated from the 100% zone, nice work Anglo.
	Adam Gillard Snapshot of the 4 records I set in the last 24 hours - WAS: 36th Spoilage 9 10%; 37th Unlimited Flat 9 12%; 45th Spoilage 15 21%; 54th Spoilage Letters Attack 39%. NOW (in ascending order): 32nd Spoilage 15 6%; 27th Spoilage LA 4%; 18th Unlimited Flat 9 3%; 9th Spoilage 9 1%. Going to be proper difficult to beat that last one even with a following wind, despite not having solved the conundrum.
	Adam Gillard Not many formats left at 100% now. Good work from Amie on the Russian 9 and 15 rounders.
	Jon O'Neill Is it me or is this list upside-down to what you expect coming in? Or should it be called "Records by unbeatability?"
	Adam Gillard Ascending beatability; makes sense to me.
	Jon O'Neill Fair enough, you probably look at this page more than anyone.
	Gevin Chapwell Doesn't make sense to me. Records by x would normally mean descending. Top scores would start with the highest, for example. So yeah, it is upside-down.
	Adam Gillard Are goaty formats' beatability determined by max available or metamax available? Either way, Goatdown Standard looks surprisingly beatable.
	Adam Gillard Well done Bob! Down to 1% beatability now.
	Stephen Moore What does 1 in ∞ mean?
	Stephen Moore It updated overnight - it is now beatable one in 3,314 games!
	Catherine Mullan Why is that?
	Stephen Moore Whoops, I was looking at the Junior 9 Rounder score, not the Junior 15, in 23rd at 1 in 243.
	Jon Stitcher Players don't get accused of cheating, they get discovered cheating.
Show all comments
	Gevin Chapwell Just looking at this, I was thinking that the beatability becomes a bit inaccurate when it's very low. Octorock 9 is 1 in infinity, even though it is beatable, presumably because a higher max has never been seen. So maybe rather than using stats from whole games, a calculation that uses round-by-round information might be more accurate.
	Johnny Canuck Agreed that the 1 in ∞ figure is misleading, especially for a rather rare format-variant combination. Perhaps a question mark ("1 in ?") or the current number of attempts followed by a plus sign ("1 in 1,009+") would be more suitable.
	Mike Lee Are these beatability figures getting adjusted now that we’ve just had the 2024 dictionary cull???
	Matthew Brockwell These figures are calculated by the empirical data of actual games played over all time. Given how rarely some of these variants are played I don’t think it is worth it, they will naturally adjust over time, and already include pre-2015 data.
	Callum Todd Yes I believe the formula is something like: The number of games ever played in this format (Attempts Column) divided by: The number of those games in which the maximum available score was higher than the current high score equals: the Beatable 1 game in... column That as a percentage gives the Beatability score. So for example the 15 rounder, there have been 831,626 of those played in apterous history. 37 of these have hada max score greater than 179. Therefore the high score is beatable 37 games in 831,626, or 1 game in 22,476, 0.004% of the time. I'm not sure how many of those 37 games occurred during the bloated dictionary era, but the 13 I can see all did: https://www.apterous.org/viewformat.php?format=269&section=3 I don't expect it will be reasonably possible to recalculate these scores based on new dictionary as that would required recomputing the maximum of more or less every round ever played in apterous history.

Major places

Statland: Records by beatability

This table shows all current beatable high scores ordered by "beatability". This is defined as the proportion of games in which the maximum score is higher than the current high score. The table also shows how many games one would have to play, on average, to get even one chance to beat the current record. Formats in which the maximum possible score has already been achieved are not shown.

#	Format	High score	Beatability	Beatable 1 game in...	Attempts
1st	Junior 9 Rounder	106	0%	∞	9,611
1st	Lockdown 9	79	0%	∞	1,988
3rd	15 Rounder	179	0.004%	23,421	889,982
4th	Old 15	170	0.005%	21,979	329,682
5th	9 Rounder	117	0.01%	14,168	113,342
6th	Nice 9	83	0.02%	6,486	12,971
7th	Bullet Letters Attack	228	0.02%	4,640	27,839
8th	Unlimited Jnr Letters Attack	144	0.02%	4,627	13,880
9th	Unlimited Jnr 15	125	0.03%	3,931	11,794
10th	Unlimited Jnr 9	78	0.03%	3,659	7,317
11th	Mocktorun	1165	0.04%	2,243	11,216
12th	Octorock 9	74	0.1%	1,935	1,935
13th	Octorock Numbers Attack	186	0.1%	1,795	8,976
14th	Letters Attack	218	0.1%	1,618	51,760
15th	CSW 9 rounder	116	0.1%	1,615	1,615
16th	Blitz	178	0.1%	1,438	5,752
17th	Instant Letters Attack	200	0.1%	1,421	42,629
18th	Goat Attack	299	0.1%	1,173	46,904
19th	Bullet 9	107	0.1%	974	11,693
20th	Unlimited Flat 9	98	0.1%	871	1,742
21st	Spoilage 15	426	0.1%	834	3,335
22nd	Spoilage 9	261	0.1%	685	2,739
23rd	Unlimited 9	102	0.2%	614	6,135
24th	Lightning Goatblitz	216	0.2%	613	9,197
25th	Speed 9	106	0.2%	577	12,697
26th	Unlimited Blitz	169	0.2%	573	1,720
27th	Junior Letters Attack	194	0.2%	559	6,150
28th	Speed Letters Attack	214	0.2%	520	9,359
29th	Speedgoat	215	0.2%	491	15,216
30th	Goatdown Jnr. Letters Attack	137	0.2%	476	3,331
31st	Bullet 15	164	0.2%	442	17,660
32nd	Lockdown Jnr 9	70	0.2%	435	1,306
33rd	CSW 15 rounder	168	0.2%	412	1,648
34th	Spoilage Letters Attack	623	0.2%	405	4,452
35th	Unlimited Letters Attack	214	0.3%	338	10,804
36th	CSW Letters Attack	216	0.3%	334	3,343
37th	Nice 15	133	0.3%	293	6,441
38th	Nice Letters Attack	167	0.4%	277	18,037
39th	Speed 15	161	0.4%	263	8,413
40th	Octolock 9	73	0.4%	245	981
41st	Lockdown Jnr Letters Attack	125	0.4%	244	1,221
42nd	Nasty 9	77	0.4%	243	1,701
43rd	Goatdown Jnr. 15	113	0.4%	225	3,147
44th	Hyper 15	168	0.5%	221	6,177
45th	Unlimited 15	162	0.5%	219	5,925
46th	Instant 15	152	0.5%	217	10,858
47th	Flat 9	74	0.5%	217	3,690
48th	Instant 9	96	1%	198	11,114
49th	Hyper Unlimited Letters Attack	262	1%	191	9,346
50th	Goatdown Standard	214	1%	180	16,399
51st	Deepdown Letters Attack	136	1%	171	1,878
52nd	Lockdown Jnr 15	110	1%	157	1,882
53rd	Touchdown 15	137	1%	127	4,066
54th	Lightning 15	161	1%	127	3,046
55th	Goatblitz	213	1%	127	15,446
56th	Hyper Unlimited 9	113	1%	126	2,265
57th	Berserk 9	104	1%	119	6,080
58th	Junior 15 Rounder	151	1%	100	10,131
59th	Berserk 15	158	1%	77	6,141
60th	Berserk Letters Attack	204	1%	72	3,165
61st	Touchdown 9	83	1%	72	2,509
62nd	Flat 15	121	1%	68	1,777
63rd	Hyper Unlimited 15	186	2%	61	2,973
64th	Hyper Letters Attack	208	2%	56	5,294
65th	Hyper Unlimited Flat 9	107	2%	56	1,390
66th	Lockdown 15	125	2%	53	2,869
67th	Nice Blitz	129	3%	40	3,431
68th	Touchdown Letters Attack	174	3%	39	5,924
69th	Hypergoat 9	118	3%	34	1,722
70th	French 9 Rounder	99	3%	33	3,197
71st	Portuguese 9 Rounder	96	3%	33	1,354
72nd	Nasty Letters Attack	147	3%	32	6,333
73rd	Octolock 15	114	3%	32	1,843
74th	Nasty 15	122	3%	30	2,287
75th	Duckdown 9	149	3%	30	1,887
76th	Hypertouch 9	95	3%	30	1,656
77th	Hypergoat Letters Attack	250	3%	29	14,026
78th	Octolock Numbers Attack	182	4%	28	5,255
79th	Octorock 15	114	4%	27	2,758
80th	Octorock Letters Attack	140	4%	27	2,574
81st	Hyper 9	99	4%	27	5,062
82nd	Lockdown Letters Attack	151	4%	26	1,699
83rd	Lightning Goatdown 15	204	5%	22	3,153
84th	Hypergoat Blitz	185	5%	21	2,367
85th	French Letters Attack	203	5%	18	9,498
86th	Touchblitz	134	6%	18	1,652
87th	German 9	82	7%	14	1,498
88th	Welsh 9 rounder	81	9%	11	780
89th	Russian 15	112	9%	11	3,480
90th	Hyper Nasty Letters Attack	184	10%	10	2,076
91st	German 15	132	10%	10	3,280
92nd	Beanstalk Letters Attack	198	10%	10	2,830
93rd	Spanish 9	102	11%	10	2,655
94th	Hyper Blitz	153	11%	9	1,228
95th	French 15 Rounder	152	11%	9	5,742
96th	Portuguese 15 Rounder	148	13%	8	1,735
97th	Russian 9	69	13%	8	851
98th	Hypergoatdown	173	13%	8	3,294
99th	Italian 15	158	16%	6	1,985
100th	Old Mocktorun	1054	16%	6	885
101st	Octolock Letters Attack	134	17%	6	586
102nd	Russian Letters Attack	128	17%	6	7,610
103rd	Nasty Blitz	117	18%	6	1,104
104th	Hyperlock 9	86	18%	6	459
105th	Duckdown 15	238	22%	5	2,505
106th	Hyper Nasty 9	85	22%	5	1,121
107th	Spanish 15	157	22%	4	3,705
108th	German Letters Attack	155	23%	4	6,011
109th	Portuguese Letters Attack	180	27%	4	1,954
110th	Italian 9	91	35%	3	1,396
111th	Hyperlock Letters Attack	180	36%	3	929
112th	Hyperlock 15	140	37%	3	1,760
113th	Hypertouch 15	154	38%	3	2,472
114th	Catalan 9	94	40%	2	331
115th	Italian Letters Attack	199	41%	2	3,888
116th	Duckdown Letters Attack	345	43%	2	1,994
117th	Dutch 9	78	45%	2	755
118th	Hypertouchblitz	154	46%	2	1,647
119th	Hyper Nasty 15	139	56%	2	1,307
120th	Hypertouch Letters Attack	206	56%	2	5,528
121st	Latin 9	98	58%	2	1,020
122nd	Hyper Nasty Blitz	135	65%	2	666
123rd	Spanish Letters Attack	190	70%	1	3,136
124th	Welsh 15 rounder	114	86%	1	2,621
125th	Hebrew 9 Rounder	69	93%	1	416
126th	Dutch Letters Attack	148	93%	1	2,033
127th	Greek 15	118	95%	1	838
128th	Catalan 15	134	96%	1	376
129th	Latin 15	151	97%	1	2,375
130th	Greek 9	70	98%	1	2,315
131st	Catalan Letters Attack	174	98%	1	488
132nd	Latin Letters Attack	202	99%	1	1,255
133rd	Dutch 15	114	99%	1	1,734
134th	Greek Letters Attack	142	99.8%	1	1,524
135th	Hebrew Letters Attack	129	99.9%	1	673
136th	Spoilage Numbers Attack	180	100%	1	9,532
136th	Instant Conundrum Attack	198	100%	1	5,782
136th	Welsh Letters Attack	127	100%	1	2,022
136th	Omelette Blitz	148	100%	1	1,396
136th	Hyper Nasty Conundrum Attack	190	100%	1	1,304
136th	Finnish 15 Rounder	99	100%	1	1,118
136th	Spoilage Conundrum Attack	150	100%	1	1,117
136th	Touchdown Jnr Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	945
136th	Finnish Letters Attack	110	100%	1	780
136th	Finnish 9 Rounder	58	100%	1	768
136th	German Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	570
136th	Hebrew 15 Rounder	106	100%	1	533
136th	Portuguese Conundrum Attack	150	100%	1	333
136th	Hypertouch Conundrum Attack	170	100%	1	332
136th	Spanish Conundrum Attack	100	100%	1	307
136th	Italian Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	238
136th	Greek Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	223
136th	Latin Conundrum Attack	100	100%	1	199
136th	Russian Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	117
136th	Dutch Conundrum Attack	70	100%	1	113
136th	Hebrew Conundrum Attack	90	100%	1	72
136th	Finnish Conundrum Attack	60	100%	1	47
136th	Catalan Conundrum Attack	80	100%	1	40

Last updated: 2025-03-24 00:08:53 (8 days, 17 hours, 10 minutes, and 7 seconds ago.)
Update time: 1 minute and 52 seconds.
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Statland: Records by beatability